Low Expectations for Oil Prices

| Multi-Asset

Conditions conducive for rising oil prices are evident in the macro data but not in the market. Oil spot prices have risen since the beginning of the year, but they have still not returned to their pre-pandemic levels. The year-on-year change in the Bloomberg Energy index thus remains negative (-18%).

Moreover, this price increase was achieved by translating the term structure of futures upwards in an almost homothetic manner: the oil price curve remains in backwardation. The market thus anticipates that this rise in oil prices will likely not be permanent. The December 2021 future stands at USD 59 for a spot price of USD 63, indicating that the market does not anticipate a price increase between now and the end of the year but rather a limited decrease.


Low Expectations for Oil Prices
Source: Bloomberg, Unigestion. Data as at 26 February 2021.

Important Information

The information and data presented in this page may discuss general market activity or industry trends but is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice. It is not a financial promotion and represents no offer, solicitation or recommendation of any kind, to invest in the strategies or in the investment vehicles it refers to. Some of the investment strategies described or alluded to herein may be construed as high risk and not readily realisable investments, which may experience substantial and sudden losses including total loss of investment.

The investment views, economic and market opinions or analysis expressed in this page present Unigestion’s judgement as at the date of publication without regard to the date on which you may access the information. There is no guarantee that these views and opinions expressed will be correct nor do they purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets and developments referred to in it. All information provided here is subject to change without notice. To the extent that this page contains statements about the future, such statements are forward-looking and subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, the impact of competitive products, market acceptance risks and other risks.

Data and graphical information herein are for information only and may have been derived from third party sources. Although we believe that the information obtained from public and third party sources to be reliable, we have not independently verified it and we therefore cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. As a result, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is or will be made by Unigestion in this respect and no responsibility or liability is or will be accepted. Unless otherwise stated, source is Unigestion.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. All investments contain risks, including total loss for the investor.