No Consensus on Earnings Estimates

Going into the Q2 earnings season, two things are clear: uncertainty is high and expectations are low. Many firms pulled their guidance earlier this year, and very few are currently providing any estimates for 2020 EPS.

But it is not just firms that are uncertain. The financial analysts who cover these firms are also unsure how earnings will evolve this year as reflected by the very wide dispersion across estimates for 2020 EPS: currently at USD 25 (measured via standard deviation) versus just USD 5 in 2019 and 2018, and USD 9 in 2009 for the S&P 500.

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