No inflationary surprises on the horizon
Our proprietary world inflation indicator is a synthetic measure of current inflation surprises across 17 countries. When above the zero line, our inflation Nowcaster is an indication that inflation surprises should be positive. Following the growth deceleration, it took a plunge below the zero level. Within a couple of months, the previous potential for inflation surprises vanished as growth declined and energy prices reversed earlier gains. This change in inflation expectations was a key element that allowed central banks to embark on a journey to lower interest rates.
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