Performance of the USD against developed and emerging currencies
After a strong 2018 for the US dollar, its performance so far this year has been mixed. Some of the factors that helped propel the dollar higher last year have turned into headwinds, chief among them the Fed pivot. As we have seen other developed world central banks also shift their stance closer to the Fed, the dollar has held steady against its developed market peers. However, declining growth differentials versus emerging market (EM) economies and strong flows into emerging assets, especially local currency debt, have pushed the dollar down against a broad basket of EM currencies. This divergent dynamic is indicative of the dispersion in market returns we expect in 2019 and why discrimination in asset allocation will be key.
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