Our proprietary Growth Nowcaster – a point-in-time systematic indicator of aggregated economic activity – currently indicates a broad-based recovery, albeit showing signs of stabilisation in the last few weeks. Diffusion indices – measuring the proportion of improving/deteriorating data – have converged at 50% after reaching 75% on average in July and August. Other signs of this stabilisation can be found in various public macro indicators including surprise indices and Baltic Dry freight activity and railway transportation, corroborating central bank declarations that the pace of the recovery has been losing steam
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