US Inflation Surprise Likely

| Multi-Asset

In the space of a few weeks, an increasing amount of data has started to indicate a significant shift in the macro forces influencing financial markets. Inflation risk has gone from neutral to high as our Inflation Nowcasters and Newscasters climbed sharply.

Within the US, various inflation surprise triggers have started to rise rapidly and our inflation indicators became positive again in mid-December before accelerating their rise in the first few days of January. As our chart shows, all components of our proprietary US Inflation Nowcaster are on the rise, with most now in positive territories: inflation should surprise investors to the upside.

 

US Inflation Surprise Likely
Source: Bloomberg, Unigestion. Data as at 25 January 2021.


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