Breakdown of US GDP vs Growth Nowcaster Readings

After the recession scares that led the market sell-off last December, the Q4 US GDP growth numbers were highly anticipated by market observers. Expectations were for growth of 2.2%, but it came in at 2.6%. Still, we see in this number the reflection of our macro message: the housing market situation is so far the main weakness in US economic activity and has contracted for four quarters in a row. It is historically a dark omen. Durable goods consumption remained surprisingly robust in spite of negative pressures on long-term decision making, as revealed by our proprietary Growth Nowcaster.

Breakdown of US GDP vs Growth Nowcaster Readings

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