Inflation Indicators Are Pointing Toward a Downward Dynamic

As our chart shows, inflation readings have been weakening since the middle of last year. The NY Fed’s price data and the US core measure are both below the Fed’s 2% target, while the NY Fed’s indicator data has also been moving lower in tandem.

The NY Fed underlying price data is derived from a large number of disaggregated price series in the consumer price index, while the NY Fed underlying indicator data measure incorporates additional macroeconomic and financial variables. The US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excludes prices of food and energy.

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