Beware Higher Discount Rates

| Multi Asset

Higher interest rates could drag on valuations in spite of the expected recovery in sales and earnings. For example, the underwhelming year-to-date return of the Nasdaq 100 may seem challenged by its expected earnings growth of 35% compared to last quarter, but rising yields have been a heavy burden for the index to bear. A standard Gordon-Shapiro model would suggest that the 70bps rise in the US 10-year yield this year, combined with earnings growth of 35%, would net an expected return of about 4%, all else being equal, given the high duration of these stocks.

 

Beware Higher Discount Rates

Source: Bloomberg, Unigestion. Data as at 9 April 2021.


Important Information

The information and data presented in this page may discuss general market activity or industry trends but is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice. It is not a financial promotion and represents no offer, solicitation or recommendation of any kind, to invest in the strategies or in the investment vehicles it refers to. Some of the investment strategies described or alluded to herein may be construed as high risk and not readily realisable investments, which may experience substantial and sudden losses including total loss of investment.

The investment views, economic and market opinions or analysis expressed in this page present Unigestion’s judgement as at the date of publication without regard to the date on which you may access the information. There is no guarantee that these views and opinions expressed will be correct nor do they purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets and developments referred to in it. All information provided here is subject to change without notice. To the extent that this page contains statements about the future, such statements are forward-looking and subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, the impact of competitive products, market acceptance risks and other risks.

Data and graphical information herein are for information only and may have been derived from third party sources. Although we believe that the information obtained from public and third party sources to be reliable, we have not independently verified it and we therefore cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. As a result, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is or will be made by Unigestion in this respect and no responsibility or liability is or will be accepted. Unless otherwise stated, source is Unigestion.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. All investments contain risks, including total loss for the investor.