Consumer Surveys Point to Inflation Risk

| Multi Asset

While inflation breakevens have already risen quite significantly, it is now the turn of consumer surveys to flag inflation risk. Several surveys, such as those from the University of Michigan and the Cleveland Fed are all indicating that inflation could surprise in the coming months.

Interestingly, the Cleveland Fed’s indicators anticipate rising inflation in the medium term but low inflation in the short term. Inflation therefore does not appear to be an immediate hurdle in the coming weeks, but rather a part of the broader picture for 2021 and possibly 2022.

A similar situation is arising for the rest of the developed world: all of our proprietary country-level Newscasters and Nowcasters are now showing high readings. The US ones appear to be paving the way with the others playing catch-up.


Consumer Surveys Point to Inflation Risk
Source: Bloomberg, Unigestion. Data as at 25 January 2021.

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