Source: Bloomberg, Unigestion, as of 26.10.2021
Looking at the large spectrum of emerging market currencies, we can see that year-to-date performances have been uneven, with clear winners and losers. Interestingly, there have been contrasting drivers, as fundamentals often mattered less than political risk and policy responses had a larger impact on emerging market currency returns. This area of the market has therefore been particularly hard to navigate this year given the different dynamics at play. Only a select few emerging market currency crosses have outperformed the US dollar so far, as most opportunities have come from relative value plays, where selectivity and discrimination were essential to deliver returns. We believe this will likely continue to be the case going forward.
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