First Signs of Reflation

| Multi Asset

While the pricing of inflation risk has kept portfolio managers and financial market observers busy, inflation has yet to be fully reflected in published data – though it is showing an uptrend. In the US, the consumer price index for Q1 rose by 2.6% year-on-year, slightly surprising economists to the upside (the consensus was for 2.5%). In Germany, the same figure is already at 2%. The index in France went from a 0% change in September to 1.4% in March. But this is not just a European or American development. In Asia, Chinese inflation went from -0.5% in November to 0.4% in March, while Korean inflation went from 0.1% in October to 1.5%. While high inflation is not here yet, all global consumer price indices have started to recover towards their long-term levels.


First Signs of Reflation

Source: Bloomberg, Unigestion. Data as at 16 April 2021.

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