Has Global Growth Peaked?

| Multi Asset

20210913 globalGrowth website

           Source: Unigestion, Bloomberg, RavenPack. Data as of 8 September 2021.

The last few weeks have seen a significant shift in the pace of growth across many of the world’s economies. While this slowdown is taking place from extremely high levels, it is nevertheless concerning due to its breadth and underlying drivers. Since the end of June, our proprietary indicators tracking global growth have been declining steadily. Both our Global Growth Nowcaster – which aggregates and analyses traditional macro fundamental data – and our Global Growth Newscaster – which aggregates and analyses news sentiment data – suggest that the growth impulse has peaked, even if growth remains above its potential level.

The change in economic conditions has led our portfolio exposures to follow suit, moving us away from the strong pro-cyclical bias we had earlier to a more cautious stance that is selective in its growth exposure. Importantly, we remain positive on the macro context as we expect monetary policy to remain supportive in the face of the growth slowdown.

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