In the US, China and the Eurozone, macroeconomic data has surprised to the upside for the past two quarters, according to the Citi Economic Surprise index for each of those regions. We also note that volatility is increasingly visible in the macroeconomic data that makes up our proprietary Nowcasters. While this is normal during periods of economic recovery and not an immediate cause for concern, historically such volatility has usually led to increased volatility in equity markets. However, with markets currently driven by extreme levels of exuberance, any market volatility could be more pronounced today than it has historically been.
Source: Bloomberg, Unigestion. Data as at 12 February 2021.
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