Average Future Monthly Returns at Current Valuations
By examining a broad spectrum of valuation measures (including both backward-looking and forward-looking ones) and placing current levels in their historical context, we see that valuations are broadly around their historical averages. The S&P 500 is certainly an outlier, but its valuation is still not extreme. If we further consider the future average monthly return over expanding windows, we see that the historical return over the short-term is attractive, but the picture for longer holding periods is more mixed as returns past the first month turn less positive.
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