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Swing in S&P 500 Index from December to January

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After a terrible end of the year for risky assets, January has seen a sharp reversal with many assets recouping their December 2018 losses. In the case of the S&P 500 index, the swing in prices (i.e., the difference between January and December price returns) is the largest historically. A combination of factors have driven the rally, including a dovish pivot by the Fed, progress on US-China trade talks, a positive earnings season thus far, and a recovery from oversold levels. While our short-term view at the beginning of the year was positive for growth assets, our medium-term view remains more cautious as many of the fundamental risks have not dissipated.

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Change in FX vs USD Pre- and Post-Fed Announcement

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