- Private equity
- Papers
- Perspectives
Paul Newsome
Head of Investment Solutions
Private Equity
- Consistent distributions remain a key feature of our portfolios
- Investors are continuing to benefit from allocations to secondaries and emerging managers
- Mid-life transactions and continuation vehicles will also be key features of 2026
- We remain focused on our 'Triple Alpha' approach to deliver premium returns and successful exits
Overview
Risk assets continued to deliver for investors during the final quarter of 2025, although returns were more modest than for previous quarters. Investors in stock markets saw continued upside in Q4, with emerging markets and larger markets in Europe and Asia leading the way as investors sought to diversify away from the US. This performance was supported by a programme of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve during the period. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points twice in the last quarter, following on from an initial 25 bp cut in September.
The Fed’s policy shift was not followed by all other major central banks. In Europe the ECB left rates unchanged in Q4 while the Bank of England cut rates by 25 bps in December, having already cut rates by 75 bps earlier in the year. Stronger earnings also played their part, with companies reporting resilient or above-expected profits, supporting valuations as the year came to a close. The technology sector, and particularly AI, continued to boom, with record capital deployment, particularly among venture capital firms, into a range of related areas from data centres to start ups.
In the mid-market we have continued to find attractive investment opportunities and deliver exits at a consistently high level, enabling us to provide enhanced cashflows for our investors. Looking ahead to 2026, we believe the backdrop for private equity investors will continue to improve – barring any major geopolitical shocks – with secondaries and emerging managers likely to continue their rise. Mid-life transactions and continuation vehicles will also remain highly attractive options for investors.
Steady deals, quiet exits
Global deal activity continued at a steady pace during Q4 2025, with 1,932 deals globally over the period[1]. This compares with 1,993 deals in Q3 but is significantly lower than the 2,511 recorded in the final quarter of 2024. While the number of deals remained constant, deal value dropped from USD 272.8bn in Q3 to USD 218.2bn in Q4, suggesting a greater concentration in the small and mid-market.
This was slightly higher than the USD 211.4bn achieved in Q4 2024. North America experienced both a drop in the number of deals and the value during the quarter. Some 944 deals were recorded between October and December, compared with 1,036 in the previous quarter, with the aggregate deal value dropping 18% from USD 160bn to USD 131bn.
A decline was also experienced in Europe, with the number of deals dropping from 606 in Q3 to 582 in Q4. Aggregate deal value fell from USD 79.9bn to USD 53.1bn.
In Asia Pacific the aggregate number of deals dropped from 351 to 348 between Q3 and Q4 2025 while the aggregate deal value fell from USD 32.9bn to USD 30.5bn – a 7% drop.
Exit activity remained subdued during the period with 420 deals undertaken in aggregate, down from 454 in Q3. Aggregate deal value, however, rose from USD 107.2bn to USD 119.9bn over the period – a 12% increase. However, this was some 10% below the amount achieved in Q4 2024. Trade sales proved the most favoured exit route during the quarter, followed by secondary buyouts. Seven IPOs were undertaken during the period.
[1] Preqin, January 2026
Global Exits Aggregate Deal Value (USD bn)
Source: Preqin
Exits in North America fell from 214 to 194 in Q4 2025, while aggregate deal value jumped from USD 47bn to USD 93.6bn, driven by a handful of mega cap exits. In Europe, 157 exits took place during Q4, down from 164 in Q3. Aggregate deal value nosedived from USD 45.3bn to USD 15.6bn.
Asia Pacific also saw exit activity decline – 65 exits took place in Q4 compared with 76 in Q3. Aggregate deal value fell from USD 14.9bn to USD 10bn.
Q4 caps a strong year for Unigestion
Investment and exit activity continued apace at Unigestion during the fourth quarter of 2025.
One of our most notable transactions was our exit from Tecvia, which was a key holding for our Unigestion Direct III fund. Headquartered in Munich, Germany, Tecvia is one of the leading pan-European providers of digital content and software solutions for driver’s licence training and the education of commercial drivers. Tecvia has grown sales and EBITDA significantly during our two- and half-year ownership and our exit generated attractive returns for our investors.
During Q4 we committed to two single asset continuation vehicles. In October we closed a commitment to a single-asset continuation fund for McLarens, alongside Lee Equity Partners. McLarens is a leader in claims management, loss adjusting, and technical services, facilitating the investigation, negotiation and settlement of complex commercial insurance claims.
This was followed by our commitment to a single asset continuation vehicle for Arcadia Consumer Healthcare, alongside Bansk Group. Arcadia Consumer Healthcare is one of the fastest-growing, scaled, non-prescription healthcare platforms with differentiated and clinically efficacious, market-leading brands.
Other activity during Q4 included our direct investment in Mait Group, alongside DBAG (Deutsche Beteiligungs AG). Mait Group is a partner for innovative digital solutions in product lifecycle management, enterprise resource planning and IT services.
We also committed to Axiom Equity 2 during the period. Axiom is a UK lower mid-market B2B SaaS growth investment specialist, focused on the UK & Ireland. It was established in 2021 by Edward Fraser, who brings deep technology and SaaS investment experience from Inflexion, a well-established UK mid-market buyout firm, and Jonathan Organ, who has significant operational expertise across the SaaS sector.
Further information on our transactions in Q4 2025 can be found at the end of this document.
Outlook for 2026
At this time of year, we traditionally provide some thoughts on the trends private equity investors will see in 2026 and beyond.
Our 2025 predictions were largely correct – a first for us! Firstly, our prediction that secondaries would continue to grow, and move from a satellite to a core allocation, proved accurate. While final figures for 2025 are not yet in, the secondaries market is expected to have had a record year on all metrics. First half 2025 numbers showed overall secondaries volume up by 52% year-on-year, while GP-led activity was up 68% during the same period[1]. Finally, investors have been allocating more than ever to secondaries, leading to over USD 344bn of dry powder. Although this is a record high, it still only represents c1.7x annual investment pace.
Secondly, we believed that there would be a surge in open-ended private equity fund launches. This indeed happened with several blue-chip private equity firms launching open-ended firms in 2025. In September 2025, Deloitte reported that the total AUM for semi-liquid funds by end of 2024 was $349bn with the expectation that this would grow to over $4trn by 2030[2].
Thirdly, government efficiency, energy transformation, reshoring and healthcare efficiency have all been significant themes – and remain so into 2026, with tariffs an increasing deterrent to cross border trade and AI supporting greater efficiency among businesses globally. Meanwhile, solar and wind have overtaken fossil fuels in the EU over the past year and continue to accelerate, while policy changes in the US have shifted the energy transformation there into reverse.
Finally, we correctly predicted investors would pivot to Europe as North America became too expensive. In 2025, Europe captured about 34% of global capital fundraising, the highest share in at least two decades[3].
This year’s outlook is informed by on-the-ground insights from our investment team, applied directly to our investment strategies. We hope you enjoy reading them.
Positive momentum, continued caution
In the absence of geopolitical shocks, the positive momentum we saw towards the end of 2025 will steadily gather pace in 2026 as underwriting conditions continue to stabilise. However, we proceed with caution and remain focused on our ‘Triple Alpha’ approach to deliver premium returns and successful exits throughout the cycle across our strategies.
This approach is built on three key elements: investing in companies whose growth is underpinned by long-term secular trends; remaining focused on the mid-market, where valuations and leverage are more reasonable and anchored to fundamentals and finally; the consistent application of our bottom-up, fundamentals-based underwriting process. Combined, these three pillars give us confidence in our ability to navigate changing environments successfully and to continue delivering solid distributions to our investors despite market volatility.
Exit environment and fundraising to improve
While the exit environment remained subdued in 2025, we believe a steady improvement will take place this year. We see sustained interest from trade buyers, a gradual but continued re-opening of the IPO window, and secondaries gaining in both volume and efficiency, increasingly serving as an alternative exit channel. We will focus more on the exit environment in our next letter.
Fundraising should also rebound as cash flow bottlenecks ease and investor overexposure to alternatives normalises. Nonetheless, significant risks persist as rising global government debt heightens the potential for geopolitical tensions and economic disruption.
Continued growth in secondaries
Conditions for further growth in secondaries are strong. We are seeing more sellers (and seller types) engage constructively with the market. Existing secondaries investors continue to be well capitalised, and we are also seeing new entrants, including specialist buyers, that focus on specific transaction types.
The secondaries market is also evolving with an array of transaction types emerging across every sub-strategy that benefit buyers, sellers and GPs alike. The secondaries market is at the forefront of innovation when it comes to structuring transactions across broad portfolios or a slice of a single portfolio company.
On the LP-stake side volumes are still dominated by larger transactions at the upper end of the market, whereas on the GP-led side the lower end of the market has been a very important value driver. We continue to look at as much deal flow as we can while keeping our selection rate at less than 3%, selecting high quality companies that always have exit optionality and that enable us to generate predictable cashflows.
Consolidation trend to benefit emerging managers
We believe the consolidation trend among private equity firms will continue. This may cause some short-term fundraising challenges for emerging managers given that investors continue to take comfort by investing with larger private equity groups.
However, we believe that one of the potential consequences of consolidation is an increased number of spin-outs forming new private equity firms. Inevitably, talented investment professionals, especially those focused on specific sectors, may no longer be able to invest in their sweet spot in the larger firm. As such, spin-outs of sector specialised teams are a trend to watch.
Mid-life investments provide compelling opportunities
In the co-investment space, mid-life investments present a particularly compelling risk-reward profile. Mid-life transactions arise when GPs seek additional capital to fund add-on acquisitions, pursue new growth initiatives, or execute recapitalisations that provide partial liquidity. By partnering with a GP that already knows the business intimately and has a proven value-creation plan, we can support a step change in growth and achieve an accelerated path to exit. Even if the broader rebound in M&A in 2026 remains uneven, mid-life transactions should continue to offer a resilient and high-quality source of deal flow.
At Unigestion, we seek to provide GPs with tailored, partnership-orientated capital at critical inflection points, helping them achieve outcomes that traditional co-investment structures struggle to achieve, while enhancing our own cashflow.
Climate impact: delivering performance and impact
Demand for impact strategies may have softened in the current macroeconomic and geopolitical environment but solid interest remains, particularly among European investors. Ultimately, we believe this will prove a short-term pause as capital already deployed in impact strategies begins to demonstrate solid performance. Investors will increasingly recognise these approaches as a valuable and complementary component of a well-diversified portfolio.
Looking further ahead, we believe that AI will become increasingly useful for climate investors. At present, its application has mainly been around streamlining data collection but we expect that tools that can act as a valuable second opinion or as a red-flag system alongside human judgement, will emerge, helping investors reduce bias and increase consistency – and thus strengthen the achievement of impact outcomes.
Fuller versions of these outlooks can be found here.
Unigestion Private Equity activity
Here are the highlights of some of the investments that we completed in Q4 2025:
In October, we agreed to sell our stake in Tecvia to Harris Computer. Headquartered in Munich, Germany, Tecvia is one of the leading pan-European providers of digital content and software solutions for driver’s licence training and the education of commercial drivers. Through its integrated platform, the company digitises and supports the entire value chain of driving schools and institutions. It offers end-to-end solutions – from fully featured ERP systems with third-party interfaces to advanced teaching software for all licence classes and digital learning media – fully preparing students for both theoretical and practical driving tests. We invested in Tecvia in 2023 through our direct investment programs, including our direct fund Unigestion Direct III. Our team was attracted by the company’s strong market position, differentiated business model, and societal impact. Under Unigestion Private Equity’s ownership, Tecvia has grown sales and EBITDA significantly, generating an attractive return for our investors. In October, we agreed to sell our stake in Tecvia to Harris Computer. Headquartered in Munich, Germany, Tecvia is one of the leading pan-European providers of digital content and software solutions for driver’s licence training and the education of commercial drivers. Through its integrated platform, the company digitises and supports the entire value chain of driving schools and institutions. It offers end-to-end solutions – from fully featured ERP systems with third-party interfaces to advanced teaching software for all licence classes and digital learning media – fully preparing students for both theoretical and practical driving tests. We invested in Tecvia in 2023 through our direct investment programs, including our direct fund Unigestion Direct III. Our team was attracted by the company’s strong market position, differentiated business model, and societal impact. Under Unigestion Private Equity’s ownership, Tecvia has grown sales and EBITDA significantly, generating an attractive return for our investors.
Also in October, we committed to Emerald Lake Capital Partners I. Emerald Lake Capital Management (“ELCM”) is a mid-market private equity sponsor founded in 2018 focusing on industrials services, products and distribution; business & multi-site services; and high value manufacturing sectors. Target companies have capital-efficient models with sustainable competitive advantages. ELCM was founded in 2018 and led by Dan Lukas and Russ Hammond, who have invested together for more than a decade. Since the firm’s founding and as an independent sponsor, ELCM raised approximately USD 900m of committed capital and completed eight platform investments, two of which have been exited.
Also in July, we committed to Integrum II. Integrum II targets high-quality businesses across four key subsectors: insurance services, payments, business & professional services, and capital-light financial services, targeting majority positions in resilient, high-margin, capital-light businesses, with typical equity tickets of USD 150m – USD 400m. The fund manager leverages deep sector expertise and a strong network to source proprietary deals and drive value through hands-on operational involvement, particularly in talent, technology, and service expansion. The first investment in Fund II is Stout, a leading valuation advisory business, as part of the “office of the CFO” vertical targeted by Integrum.
In the same month, we closed a commitment to a single-asset continuation fund for McLarens, alongside Lee Equity Partners. McLarens is a leading provider of claims management, loss adjusting, and technical services facilitating the investigation, negotiation, and settlement of complex commercial insurance claims. The company plays a critical role in the insurance industry as an impartial arbiter of losses between carriers and insured parties and provides a comprehensive suite of critical claims and technical services across three key business segments: core loss adjusting, speciality lines adjusting and technical services. McLarens is expected to continue its growth path through organic growth, accretive M&A, and executing on multiple growth and efficiency initiatives that are in the early stages of being operationalised.
In November, we completed a direct investment in Mait Group, alongside DBAG (Deutsche Beteiligungs AG). MAIT Group is the partner for innovative digital solutions in product lifecycle management, enterprise resource planning and IT services. The company serves over 7,000 customers, generating sales of > €200m. The business has grown both organically and inorganically with over 20 add-ons under a unified brand and IT structure. 900 employees implement specific solutions in close cooperation with their customers at more than 25 locations in Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Benelux. As a digitalisation partner, MAIT uses the most innovative technologies from market-leading PLM, ERP and IT providers such as PTC, Siemens, Abas, Comarch and HPE.
In December, we committed to Axiom Equity 2. Axiom is a UK lower mid-market B2B SaaS growth investment specialist, focused on the UK & Ireland. Axiom was established in 2021 by Edward Fraser, who brings deep technology and SaaS investment experience from Inflexion, and Jonathan Organ, who has significant operational expertise across the SaaS sector. Our team anchored Axiom Equity 1 in 2023 through Emerging Manager Choice II and co-invested in AccountsIQ, an accounting software business, in 2024. Axiom targets target mission-critical B2B SaaS companies with proprietary data, vertical market integration, cloud native architecture, operating in defensible niches and backed by strong management/ founders.
In the same month, we also closed a commitment to a single-asset continuation fund for for Arcadia Consumer Healthcare, alongside Bansk Group. Arcadia Consumer Healthcare is one of the fastest-growing, scaled, non-prescription healthcare platforms with differentiated and clinically efficacious, market-leading brands across over the counter medications and treatments, VMS, and personal care categories. Key brands include Nizoral, anti-dandruff shampoo with differentiated active ingredients, Colace and Senokot, gastrointestinal products - stool softener and natural laxative respectively, CloSYS, oral care, alcohol-free mouthwash, and Naturelo, natural vitamins, minerals, and supplements. Further growth of the consumer healthcare platform is seen through continued organic growth, M&A and operational initiatives.
Important information
INFORMATION ONLY FOR YOU
This document has been prepared for your information only and must not be distributed, published, reproduced or disclosed (in whole or in part) by recipients to any other person without the prior written consent of Unigestion. It is neither directed to, nor intended for distribution or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or domiciled or located in, any locality, state, country or jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
RELIANCE ON UNIGESTION
There is no guarantee that Unigestion will be successful in achieving any investment objectives. An investment strategy contains risks, including the risk of complete loss.
Except where otherwise specifically noted, the information contained herein, including performance data and assets under management, relates to the entire affiliated group of Unigestion entities over time. Such information is intended to provide you with background regarding the services, investment strategies and personnel of the Unigestion entities. No guarantee is made that all or any of the individuals involved in generating the performance on behalf of one or more Unigestion entities will be involved in managing any specific client account on behalf of another Unigestion entity.
NOT A RECOMMENDATION OR OFFER
This is a promotional statement of our investment philosophy and services only in relation to the subject matter of this presentation. It constitutes neither investment advice nor recommendation. This document represents no offer, solicitation or suggestion of suitability to subscribe in either the investment vehicles to which it refers or to any securities or financial instruments described herein. Any such offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to purchase shall be made only by formal offering documents, which include, among others, a confidential offering memorandum, limited partnership agreement (if applicable), investment management agreement (if applicable), operating agreement (if applicable), and related subscription documents (if applicable). Such documentation contains additional information material to any decision to invest. Please contact your professional adviser/consultant before making an investment decision.
Reference to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell such securities and is included for illustration purposes only.
RISKS
Where possible we aim to disclose the material risks pertinent to this document. The views expressed in this document do not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets and developments referred to in it. Unigestion maintains the right to delete or modify information without prior notice. The risk management practices and methods described herein are for illustrative purposes only and are subject to modification.
Investors shall conduct their own analysis of the risks (including any legal, regulatory, tax or other consequences) associated with an investment and should seek independent professional advice. Some of the investment strategies or financial instruments described or alluded to herein may be construed as high risk and not readily realisable investments, and may experience substantial & sudden losses including total loss of investment. These are not suitable for all types of investors. Unigestion has the ability in its sole discretion to change the strategies described herein.
PAST PERFORMANCE
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, the value of investments, can fall as well as rise, and there is no guarantee that your initial investment will be returned. Returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.
NO INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION OR REPRESENTATION
No separate verification has been made as to the accuracy or completeness of the information herein. Data and graphical information herein are for information only and may have been derived from third party sources. Unigestion takes reasonable steps to verify, but does not guarantee, the accuracy and completeness of information from third party sources. As a result, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is or will be made by Unigestion in this respect and no responsibility or liability is or will be accepted. All information provided here is subject to change without notice. It should only be considered current as of the date of publication without regard to the date on which you may access the information. An investment with Unigestion, like all investments, contains risks, including total loss for the investor.
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This document may contain forward-looking statements, including observations about markets and industry and regulatory trends as of the original date of this document. Forward-looking statements may be identified by, among other things, the use of words such as “expects,” “anticipates,” “believes,” or “estimates,” or the negatives of these terms, and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements reflect Unigestion’s views as of such date with respect to possible future events and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, the impact of competitive products, market acceptance risks and other risks. Actual results could differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of factors beyond a strategy’s or Unigestion’s control. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such statements. No party has an obligation to update any of the forward-looking statements in this document.
TARGET RETURNS
Targeted returns reflect subjective determinations by Unigestion based on a variety of factors, including, among others, internal modeling, investment strategy, prior performance of similar products (if any), volatility measures, risk tolerance and market conditions. Target returns are based on Unigestion’s analytics including upside, base and downside scenarios and might include, but are not limited to, criteria and assumptions such as macro environment, enterprise value, turnover, EBITDA, debt, financial multiples and cash flows. Targeted returns are not intended to be actual performance and should not be relied upon as an indication of actual or future performance.
USE OF INDICES
Information about any indices shown herein is provided to allow for comparison of the performance of the strategy to that of certain well-known and widely recognized indices. There is no representation that such index is an appropriate benchmark for such comparison. You cannot invest directly in an index and the indices represented do not take into account trading commissions and/or other brokerage or custodial costs. The volatility of the indices may be materially different from that of the strategy. In addition, the strategy’s holdings may differ substantially from the securities that comprise the indices shown.
ASSESSMENTS
Unigestion may, based on its internal analysis, make assessments of a company’s future potential as a market leader or other success. There is no guarantee that this will be realised.
No prospectus has been filed with a Canadian securities regulatory authority to qualify the distribution of units of this fund and no such authority has expressed an opinion about these securities. Accordingly, their units may not be offered or distributed in Canada except to permitted clients who benefit from an exemption from the requirement to deliver a prospectus under securities legislation and where such offer or distribution would be prohibited by law. All investors must obtain and carefully read the applicable offering memorandum which contains additional information needed to evaluate the potential investment and provides important disclosures regarding risks, fees and expenses.
Legal Entities Disseminating This Document
United Kingdom
This material is disseminated in the United Kingdom by Unigestion (UK) Ltd., which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”).
This information is intended only for professional clients and eligible counterparties, as defined in MiFID directive and has therefore not been adapted to retail clients.
United States
In the United States, Unigestion is present and offers its services in the United States as Unigestion (US) Ltd, which is registered as an investment advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and/or as Unigestion (UK) Ltd., which is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC. All inquiries from investors present in the United States should be directed to clients@unigestion.com. This information is intended only for institutional clients that are qualified purchasers as defined by the SEC and has therefore not been adapted to retail clients.
European Union
This material is disseminated in the European Union by Unigestion Asset Management (France) SA which is authorized and regulated by the French “Autorité des Marchés Financiers” (“AMF”).
This information is intended only for professional clients and eligible counterparties, as defined in the MiFID directive and has therefore not been adapted to retail clients.
Canada
This material is disseminated in Canada by Unigestion Asset Management (Canada) Inc. which is registered as a portfolio manager and/or exempt market dealer in nine provinces across Canada and also as an investment fund manager in Ontario, Quebec and Newfoundland & Labrador. Its principal regulator is the Ontario Securities Commission (“OSC”).
This material may also be distributed by Unigestion SA which has an international advisor exemption in Quebec, Saskatchewan and Ontario. Unigestion SA’s assets are situated outside of Canada and, as such, there may be difficulty enforcing legal rights against it.
Switzerland
This material is disseminated in Switzerland by Unigestion SA which is authorized and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (“FINMA”).
Related insight
- Private equity
- Perspectives
While exit activity remained subdued in Q4 2025, we continue deliver exits at a consistently high level.
[…]- Private equity
- Perspectives
Monitoring the performance of private equity funds is a critical responsibility for Limited Partners (LPs), as it plays a key role in shaping investment decisions throughout the life of a fund
[…]- Private equity
- Perspectives
Despite geopolitical and macro-economic uncertainties, 2025 has been a largely positive year for investors with public markets posting strong gains.
While investment conditions are far from perfect, inflation globally is moderating, the IMF has slightly upgraded its growth forecasts and many central banks are shifting to a more neutral or easing stance following a significant rate hike cycle that started in 2022.
[…]- Private equity
- Press releases
Unigestion Private Equity, the global specialist in mid-market leaders, is delighted to announce the final close of Unigestion Secondary VI (USEC VI). The fund was oversubscribed at its hard cap of €1.7bn ($2bn).
[…]