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Paul Newsome
Head of Investment Solutions
Private Equity
- Deal activity picked up in Q3, while exit activity remains low
- Fundraising remains constrained with firms taking longer to reach their targets
- We have continued to make attractive investments, while enjoying strong exits
- New data on emerging managers confirms the alpha potential is real
Overview
The public markets shrugged off continued macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns to post respectable performance in the third quarter of 2025. While investment conditions are far from perfect, inflation globally is moderating, the IMF has slightly upgraded its growth forecasts and many central banks appear to be shifting to a more neutral or easing stance following a significant rate hike cycle that started in 2022. Although inflation remains elevated in the US, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate in September and signalled that further reductions may be on the way. In Europe, the ECB cut rates by 25bp in September, following a 25bp cut in June while in the UK, rate cuts totalling 75bp have been made since February.
The global economy has – in the words of the IMF – shown ‘unexpected resilience’ in the face of US tariffs. However, the full impact has yet to be felt, particularly given negotiations with significant trading partners such as China are, at the time of writing, yet to be concluded. Stretched valuations in stock markets also imply that a certain level of caution may be warranted.
Deal and exit activity in private markets improved in the third quarter but fundraising remains constrained and firms are taking longer to reach their targets, with the average time spent fundraising now 25 months, up from 16 months in 2020 . Financial markets seem to be climbing a wall of worry but highly attractive investment opportunities in companies with structural tailwinds that are less exposed to cycle risk remain. Importantly, such businesses are more attractive to buyers irrespective of the macro environment, as evidenced by our continued run of profitable exits.
Deal activity picks up
Deal activity picked up during the third quarter of 2025, with aggregate deal value totalling USD 272.8bn – up from USD 179.9bn the previous quarter and USD 231.1bn in Q3 2024. This increase in value came despite a decline in the number of deals from 2,263 to 1,993 between the second and third quarters, suggesting that overall, private equity firms are focusing on fewer, larger deals.
This trend was visible on both sides of the Atlantic. In North America, aggregate deal value rose sharply from USD 76.4bn to USD 160.1bn over the period – higher than the USD 144.4bn achieved in Q3 2024 – while in Europe, aggregate deal value rose from USD 47.1bn in Q2 to USD 79.9bn, significantly higher than the USD 48.4bn reached in Q3 2024. However, in Asia Pacific, aggregate deal value fell from USD 56.4bn to USD 32.9bn, similar to the USD 37.9bn recorded in Q3 2024.
Exit activity globally ticked up in Q3 2025, rising to USD 107.2bn, up from USD 101.5bn in Q2 2025 and in line with the USD 106.7bn realised in Q3 2024. Compared to investment activity, exit activity has remained at a meagre level for more than three years. As in Q2, trade sales during the period accounted for more than half of exits, while secondary buyouts also continued to prove an attractive exit route. Incidentally, only seven IPOs took place during Q3, down from 15 in the prior quarter and 15 in Q3 2024. Since mid-market firms rarely utilise the public market route, the low IPO count is indicative of the difficulty large and mega-cap firms experience when exiting portfolio companies.
Global Exits Aggregate Deal Value (USD bn)
Source: Preqin
Despite the global exit numbers showing stability, regional activity tells a different story. North America saw a particularly large fall in activity, with disposals totalling some USD 47bn in value, down from USD 75.1bn in Q3 2024. In Europe, despite generally being a smaller private equity market, aggregate deal value in Q3 was similar to North America, at USD 45.3bn, up from USD 19bn in Q3 2024. Aggregate exit deal value in Asia Pacific was USD 14.9bn, up from USD 12.6bn in Q3 2024.
While deal activity and exits picked up in Q3, fundraising activity globally remains constrained. One report1 suggested that 393 new funds were raised in the quarter with a total value of USD 314.1bn, suggesting that unless activity picks up sharply in Q4, annual fundraising will be at the lowest level since 2018.
Positive investment and exit momentum continues
Our own investment activity during Q3 2025 continued to reflect our focus on high-quality businesses, which we believe offer a degree of downside protection. We prioritise structural tailwinds such as the localisation of supply chains and “asset-light” or service-based business models, which tend to be more resilient to tariff-related disruptions and less exposed to cycle-risk. We insist on the presence of such investment themes whether we commit to a fund, make a co-investment or make a secondaries investment.
In August, we closed a direct investment in Ortivity. Founded in 2022 by a group of leading physicians and the pan-European fund manager Apheon, Ortivity has developed into one of Germany’s most prominent outpatient healthcare platforms. The Company operates 110 sites across three regional clusters, offering a full spectrum of orthopedic services, incl. diagnostics, anesthesia, surgery, prevention, and aftercare. Ortivity is expected to benefit from a sizeable and fragmented market driven by demographic and regulatory trends, such as the shift to outpatient care, which results in an forecasted market growth CAGR of 6%-7%.
During the quarter we also committed to Riverside Value Fund II. The Riverside Company is an investment firm with over 30 years of investment experience across multiple regions and strategies and our commitment follows previous investments in the Riverside Value Fund I and Riverside Europe funds. Riverside Value Fund II identifies and acquires underperforming North American lower middle-market businesses with strong underlying fundamentals that are facing operational, financial, and/or structural challenges.
A further commitment made during the period was to Integrum II. Integrum II targets high-quality businesses across four key subsectors: insurance services, payments, business & professional services, and capital-light financial services. It targets majority positions in resilient, high-margin, capital-light businesses, with typical equity tickets of USD 150m – USD 400m. The first investment in Fund II is Stout, a leading valuation advisory business, as part of the “office of the CFO” vertical targeted by Integrum.
In September, we committed to GENUI III. GENUI is a German mid-market private equity firm, founded in 2014, that focuses on buyouts in good health, digitalisation, and environmental transformation, acquiring strong, cash-generative businesses and driving growth through organic expansion, acquisitions, and professionalisation, while ensuring positive societal impact under its good entrepreneurship model.
It was also pleasing to continue our strong track record for exits during the quarter. In July, we agreed to sell our stake in home care provider Dovida. We invested in Dovida in November 2021 alongside the company’s founder, as well as Swiss family office Verium. We were attracted by the Company’s strong societal value, growing international presence and strong growth that has been supported by favourable demographic trends. With its position as a leading home care provider firmly established, the company is well positioned for continued strong growth.
During the quarter we also agreed to sell our stake in CERTANIA to Greenpeak Continuation Fund I in August, backed by a consortium of institutional investors, as well as Summit Partners. Established in 2020 and headquartered in Munich, Germany, CERTANIA brought together top-tier companies within its industry to create a new, globally active and independent group that delivers services across the entire testing, inspection, and certification (TIC) spectrum. We originally invested in CERTANIA in late 2021 alongside Greenpeak. The Company has a strong trajectory, marked by both significant business expansion and the mission critical nature of services provided.
Emerging managers: delivering alpha
Regular readers will recall we have spoken before about the benefits of investing in emerging managers and the misconceptions surrounding this part of the market.
While risks exist, as with any investment, emerging managers offer unique opportunities that may be inaccessible through larger, incumbent firms. Data consistently shows that emerging managers can outperform their established counterparts on a risk-adjusted basis, particularly when backed selectively.
During September we were delighted to host our Emerging Managers Summit at this year’s IPEM Conference in Paris. Our conference, which is in its fifth year, has become a key event in the private equity calendar, showcasing the latest research on the sector and the most innovative emerging managers in the market.
Emerging managers have been a core part of our DNA since our inception. We have always held to the mantra of innovation, alpha and good returns – all of which can come from emerging managers. We continue to back first-time funds because our experience has shown us that they consistently bring innovative strategies and differentiated value creation.
At the conference we were delighted to see some new data presented by Preqin which backs the case for having exposure to well-selected emerging managers. Figure 2 shows the performance of emerging versus established buyout funds by vintage. Looking back to 2001, the median IRR has typically been higher for emerging than for established managers. That gap has increased sharply since 2020 with the median IRR for emerging managers now outperforming the overall top quartile.
Emerging managers - the alpha is real
Source: Preqin
The data presented also dealt with one of the fallacies around the dispersion of returns. As Figure 3 shows, there is greater dispersion of returns than among established managers – but most significantly at the upper end, with the top 10% of emerging managers outperforming to a greater extent than the top 10% of established managers.
Emerging funds - greater dispersion at the upper end
Source: Preqin
During one of the panel sessions at the conference, we were also able to address another argument raised against emerging managers – that the pool of talent to select from will decline given consolidation in the buyout space. On the contrary, our experience is that one of the consequences of consolidation is that the number of spin outs is actually increasing.
During the consolidation process, it is inevitable that some very talented and seasoned investment professionals in certain firms will choose to spin out and launch funds focused on their specialist areas. As such, specialisation is a trend we expect to see increase further.
Another trend driving spin outs is focused on the challenges around succession. Private equity managers tend to be extremely good at managing succession within businesses they have bought, but not always so good when it comes to managing their own succession. This in turn can lead to managers leaving founder-led firms to set up on their own.
Overall, we firmly believe that emerging managers can comfortably meet the differing needs of private equity investors, whether they are looking for alpha, co-investment opportunities or introductions to managers early on with a view to backing funds two or three.
Three great examples of what emerging managers can achieve are Haveli Investments, Copilot Capital and Lauxera Capital Partners – the winners of our Emerging Manager of the Year Awards 2025.
We created these awards in 2024 to showcase emerging managers in Europe and the US that have, in our view, distinguished themselves in the previous year – particularly with regard to fundraising, attracting sophisticated investors and delivering exceptional exits.
Haveli Investments took home our US award for best fundraise of the year. Haveli specialises in high-quality technology companies, particularly focusing on software and gaming. Haveli closed a USD 4.5bn fund earlier this year, making it the largest-ever debut flagship private equity fund raised.
Copilot Capital, which won the European best fundraise award, focuses on scaling software companies across Europe. Copilot closed a EUR 200m fund in June and was co-founded and seeded by an investment division of The Friedkin Group.
Lauxera Capital Partners was selected for best exit of the year for a first-time fund. Earlier this year, Lauxera sold OrganOx – an Oxford-based medical device company which develops devices designed to preserve organs for transplant – to a strategic buyer for USD 1.5bn, making this transaction the largest-ever exit for a UK university spin-off. Lauxera is Paris and San Francisco-based and exclusively invests in the health tech industry across Europe.
Over the past three decades, we have honed our approach to mitigate much of the perceived risk associated with emerging managers. Our focus is on seasoned private equity professionals – typically with 15 to 20 years of industry experience – who choose to establish their own firms. “Emerging”, which simply reflects fund number, is clearly a misnomer for such industry veterans.
Through our continued backing of emerging managers, we continue to deliver exceptional performance for our investors while at the same time developing decades-long valuable partnerships with the next generation of stars.
Unigestion Private Equity Activity
Here are the highlights of some of the investments that we completed in Q3
In July, we agreed to sell our stake in Dovida to Ardian. Founded in Switzerland as Home Instead in 2007, Dovida employs some 12,000 individuals who provide home care services to those in need across Europe and Australasia – enabling clients to continue living in their own homes as long as possible and in accordance with their preferences. Dovida offers a wide range of non-medical services, including companion care, home help, basic care, overnight assistance, dementia care, as well as support for palliative situations and caregiving relatives. Dovida’s services not only enhance the quality of life for clients but also contribute significantly to society by alleviating pressure on in-patient care facilities, which are experiencing capacity constraints in many regions. We invested in Dovida in November 2021 alongside the Company’s founder, Paul Fritz as well as Swiss family office Verium. We were attracted by the Company’s strong societal value, growing international presence and strong growth that has been supported by favourable demographic trends. With its position as a leading home care provider firmly established, the Company is well positioned for continued strong growth.
Also in July, we completed an investment in Novétude Group, a direct secondary transaction alongside Charterhouse Capital Partners. The investment is to support the growth trajectory of Novétude Group, the European leader in Healthcare education resulting from merger of Novétude Santé, a leading French healthcare education platform owned by Charterhouse since November 2020, and Metrodora, a Spanish education platform specialising in healthcare, sports and technology. Novétude Group is the only player in Europe of significant size covering a broad spectrum of medical and paramedical professions. The group maintains a strong reputation and leading capabilities in providing high academic quality and positive employment perspectives. Given the long-term demographic trends in the EU, and particularly the ageing population, which are increasing the demand for healthcare professionals, Novétude Group is expected to benefit from strong market tailwinds.
In the same month, we committed to Riverside Value Fund II. The Riverside Company is an investment firm with over 30 years of investment experience across multiple regions and strategies. We are an existing investor with Riverside, having committed to the Riverside Value Fund I and Riverside Europe funds. Riverside Value Fund II identifies and acquires underperforming North American lower middle-market businesses with strong underlying fundamentals that are facing operational, financial, and/or structural challenges. The fund may invest in various industries; however, the fund manager will not invest in cyclical or commodity sectors. Target companies typically have USD 60m to USD 40m of revenue, valuations covered by tangible assets, a conservative use of leverage, and a strong focus on capital preservation and will make control equity investments of USD 30m to USD 75m.
Also in July, we committed to Integrum II. Integrum II targets high-quality businesses across four key subsectors: insurance services, payments, business & professional services, and capital-light financial services, targeting majority positions in resilient, high-margin, capital-light businesses, with typical equity tickets of USD 150m – USD 400m. The fund manager leverages deep sector expertise and a strong network to source proprietary deals and drive value through hands-on operational involvement, particularly in talent, technology, and service expansion. The first investment in Fund II is Stout, a leading valuation advisory business, as part of the “office of the CFO” vertical targeted by Integrum.
During July we also completed an investment in Stout, alongside Integrum. Stout, headquartered in Chicago, is a provider of finance and accounting advisory services, operating across four practice areas: valuation advisory; disputes, claims & investigations; accounting advisory; and corporate finance. Stout was founded in 1991 as a valuation services business and has since grown to cover the gamut of financial advisory offerings. The business focuses on middle market and SMB customers, mainly in the US, and has a growing presence in Europe.
In August, we closed a direct investment in Ortivity. Founded in 2022 by a group of leading physicians and the pan-European fund manager Apheon, Ortivity developed over the past four years into one of Germany’s most prominent outpatient healthcare platforms. The Company operates 110 sites across three regional clusters, offering a full spectrum of orthopedic services, incl. diagnostics, anesthesia, surgery, prevention, and aftercare. Ortivity is expected to benefit from a sizeable and fragmented market driven by demographic and regulatory trends, such as the shift to outpatient care, which results in an forecasted market growth CAGR of 6%-7%.
Furthermore, we agreed to sell our stake in CERTANIA to Greenpeak Continuation Fund I in August, backed by a consortium of institutional investors, as well as Summit Partners. Established in 2020 and headquartered in Munich, Germany, CERTANIA brought together top-tier companies within its industry to create a new, globally active and independent group that delivers services across the entire testing, inspection, and certification (TIC) spectrum. From its inception, CERTANIA has strategically prioritised two primary domains: healthcare and sustainability - placing people’s health and the environment at the core of its purpose. Companies operating under the CERTANIA group gain access to shared resources and streamlined operations, boosting client trust—something often out of reach for smaller firms. At the same time, each partner retains its distinct character and entrepreneurial drive. We invested in CERTANIA in late 2021 alongside the lead investor, Greenpeak. The Company’s strong trajectory is marked by both significant business expansion and the mission critical nature of services provided.
During the quarter we also committed to JLL Partners IX. JLL Partners is a New York-based middle market private equity sponsor focusing on the healthcare, business services and aerospace & defence sectors. The fund manager focuses on thematic ideas to drive investment decisions and targets value-oriented situations through situational complexity (corporate carve-outs, stressed balance sheets), undermanaged assets (leadership transitions, operational issues), and buy-and-builds (“DIY” or do-it-yourself platforms by acquiring a collection of smaller assets). JLL was originally founded in 1987 and is now fully owned and operated by the next generation of managing partners who have collectively worked together since 2005.
We also closed a direct investment in Tamarind Health, alongside Templewater. Tamarind Health is a leading oncology-focused healthcare services group with over 120 oncology specialists and 33 outpatient centres across multiple sub-specialties in six countries in Asia. The group provides a comprehensive suite of integrated services including diagnostics (PET/CT, MRI etc.), medical oncology and medical consults, with c. 90% of Group EBITDA currently contributed from the Singapore and Hong Kong clinics. Tamarind Health has completed six add-on acquisitions in the last two years and our investment will support the acquisition of the largest private oncology player in Singapore that will double the EBITDA of the group.
In September, we committed to GENUI III. GENUI is a German mid-market private equity firm, founded in 2014, that focuses on buyouts in good health, digitalisation, and environmental transformation, acquiring strong, cash-generative businesses and driving growth through organic expansion, acquisitions, and professionalisation, while ensuring positive societal impact under its good entrepreneurship model. Genui embeds ESG across its investment process - with independent annual assessments, global initiative commitments, and its Social Impact Partnership - to deliver financial returns alongside positive social and environmental impact.
In the same month, we closed a direct investment in SICIT Group. Founded in Chiampo in 1960, SICIT Group is a global leader in the production of biostimulants, converting the residues of the leather industry into high value-added products for sustainable agriculture. Its diverse portfolio includes animal, seaweed, and plant-based biostimulants, which play a key role in sustainable agriculture by enhancing nutrient use efficiency, improving crop yield and quality, and helping crops withstand abiotic stress. The global biostimulants market is expected to achieve double-digit growth in the period 2025-2029, driven by the quest for yield improvements, favourable regulation and pressure to substitute chemical fertilisers, as well as declining arable land. SICIT is well positioned to benefit from these tailwinds and will further strengthen its product portfolio offering.
Also in September, we committed to ChrysCapital X. ChrysCapital is one of the most established fund managers in India, with a consistent track record across nine funds. ChrysCapital is led by a seasoned leadership team with an average tenure of 20 years in the firm, as well as vast investing and operating experience across several domestic and macroeconomic events. As of today, ChrysCapital has invested over USD 5bn across 100+ companies, and generated over USD 7bn in gross realisations from 81 full exits. ChrysCapital is focused on growth, buyout and platform opportunities connected to India and targets high growth sectors well positioned to benefit from the secular growth, talent availability and cost advantages in India. ChrysCapital has 15 to 20 years’ coverage of core sectors: business services, enterprise tech, financial services and healthcare.
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