On average, analysts expect companies within the MSCI World index to see 8% sales growth throughout the year, which looks ambitious: over the 2005-2020 period, sales growth was only 2% on average. Economists also expect sales growth to be stronger than usual for European stocks and even more so for emerging market stocks, while US and tech-related industries are expected to barely outperform their 2005-2019 growth.
However, we expect these sales growth numbers to be even stronger, especially for Europe and emerging countries in light of our 5% forecast in consumption growth for the US and Europe in 2021 and 10% in the emerging world (a conservative scenario, given the 1-to-3 ratio between their respective growth rates). Our analysis therefore suggests that economic improvement is only partially priced in.
Source: Bloomberg, Unigestion. Data as at 20 December 2020.
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