The Recovery Is Still On Track

| Multi-actifs

The Recovery Is Still On Track

The diffusion index of our US growth Nowcaster, which measures the proportion of improving underlying data, has receded from its peak of 88% at the end of July to 59% at the end of August. However, it is important to put these numbers in context as economies cannot sustain such a strong pace. For example, during previous expansions in the US (1991 and 2009), the economy rebounded strongly from its nadir (the US diffusion index hitting 75% and 80%, respectively, in the first month of recovery following the 1990 and 2008 recessions). The economy then continued to expand at a more modest pace (the diffusion index averaged 53% and 63% over the following twelve months, respectively), as the economy shifted to more steady and sustainable growth levels. Thus, while we acknowledge that the recovery has slowed, we do not yet think it is at risk of derailing.


20200915 The Recovery Is Still On Track - Web
Source: Bloomberg, Unigestion. Data as at 31 August 2020.

Important Information

The information and data presented in this page may discuss general market activity or industry trends but is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice. It is not a financial promotion and represents no offer, solicitation or recommendation of any kind, to invest in the strategies or in the investment vehicles it refers to. Some of the investment strategies described or alluded to herein may be construed as high risk and not readily realisable investments, which may experience substantial and sudden losses including total loss of investment.

The investment views, economic and market opinions or analysis expressed in this page present Unigestion’s judgement as at the date of publication without regard to the date on which you may access the information. There is no guarantee that these views and opinions expressed will be correct nor do they purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets and developments referred to in it. All information provided here is subject to change without notice. To the extent that this page contains statements about the future, such statements are forward-looking and subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, the impact of competitive products, market acceptance risks and other risks.

Data and graphical information herein are for information only and may have been derived from third party sources. Although we believe that the information obtained from public and third party sources to be reliable, we have not independently verified it and we therefore cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. As a result, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is or will be made by Unigestion in this respect and no responsibility or liability is or will be accepted. Unless otherwise stated, source is Unigestion.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. All investments contain risks, including total loss for the investor.